Oct 05, 2021

New Zealand to Move on With Covid... Not From Covid?

This blog follows our last- regarding Jacinda Ardern's recent PR and the subject of reopening the New Zealand border.


New Zealand has been in strict lockdown from the world... but that may be changing

Details have not been provided by the New Zealand government as to what to expect when the country's border opens.

  • However, PM Ardern recently hinted at the possibility of rejoining the world in a recent Press Conference

NZ is a country of 5 million people, with roughly 1.5 million living in Auckland. After discovering Delta in mid-August the entire country was put into strict lockdown. Aucklanders today (October, 2021) can meet between two households in groups no larger than 10. Lockdowns are how New Zealand has combated Covid in lieu of a high vaccination rate.

  • However, 40% of the country has now been fully vaccinated and 65% have gotten at least one shot.
  • Aucklanders can now go to the beach... but not leave the city yet.

Vaccinations and realizing an inability to contain the uncontrollable

The world has moved on with Covid, not from Covid. This is not in accordance to New Zealand's original plan, but forces the government to take a more pragmatic approach.

Factors which may have weighed into the re-opening announcement include:

  • The virus has become an endemic in other countries, which are opening to the world. This is the competition!
  • Australia announced plans to restart international travel... popping the idea of effectively administering a "bubble" between the two countries.
  • Vaccinations have increased. At what point does the quality of life for the average Kiwi meet quantity of life... in light that the country has only had 27 deaths.
  • Pressure from Ardern support? People can plainly see that procedures can be put into place, combined with vaccinations, to continue progressing with travel
  • New Zealand’s economy is contracting.

What's Next? Actions will speak louder than words and New Zealand needs a plan

The fact is that Jacinda Ardern's comments are the first time we have heard any news of the border possibly reopening. We certainly invite more of it, but also wear kid gloves as her messaging recently has been contradictory. Not two weeks ago a modeler with ties to the government forecasted 7,000 deaths in a year, even with a 90% vaccination rate. Those numbers are non-starters for the average Kiwi.

In either case, a direct plan is required for the International visitor to return. People need to know they can avoid lockdowns.

An open border is fantastic for New Zealand but it needs to stay open.

“I think it is finally a realization that the elimination strategy and the modeling that justified it must be abandoned in this country,”
Simon Thornley, an epidemiologist at the University of Auckland
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Author: Frank Krieger